Donald Trump has promised to deregulate the energy sector, boost fossil fuels, dismantle environmental rules, and otherwise attack climate progress. However, experts and advocates say that lawsuits that aim to hold the fossil fuel sector responsible for deceiving the public about the climate crisis still "have a clear path forward."
Trump's Environmental Agenda
Since his 2016 campaign, Trump has vowed to roll back a wide range of environmental regulations and protections. As president, he followed through on many of these promises, withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement, gutting the Clean Power Plan, and opening up more public lands and waters to oil and gas drilling.
Now, as he eyes a potential comeback in 2024, Trump is doubling down on his anti-environmental agenda. He has pledged to "completely eliminate" the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), revive the Keystone XL pipeline, and unleash an "energy revolution" centered on fossil fuels.
Climate Accountability Lawsuits
Despite Trump's efforts, a growing number of state and local governments, as well as environmental groups, have taken the fossil fuel industry to court over its role in the climate crisis. There are more than 30 active lawsuits around the US accusing oil, gas, and coal companies of covering up the risks of their products or seeking damages for climate impacts.
The plaintiffs in these cases argue that fossil fuel giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell have known for decades that their products contribute to global warming, but deliberately sowed doubt and misinformation to protect their profits. They are seeking compensation for the costs of adapting to climate change, as well as punitive damages.
Expert Opinions on Lawsuit Viability
Richard Wiles, president of the nonprofit Center for Climate Integrity, which tracks and supports the climate litigation, says these lawsuits "have a clear path forward no matter who is in the White House."
"The overwhelming evidence of the industry's lies and ongoing deception does not change with administrations," Wiles told the Guardian. "The facts are the facts, and the courts will ultimately decide whether the industry is liable for the harms it has caused."
Other legal experts agree that Trump's efforts to undermine environmental regulations are unlikely to significantly impact the trajectory of the climate accountability lawsuits. They argue that the separation of powers, state and local jurisdiction, and the strength of the evidence against the fossil fuel companies will all limit the former president's influence.
Factors Limiting Trump's Influence
The climate lawsuits are being brought primarily by state and local governments, not the federal government. This means that even if Trump were to appoint federal judges who are sympathetic to the fossil fuel industry, they would have little sway over the state-level proceedings.
Moreover, the evidence against the industry, including internal documents and research, has been accumulating for decades. As Wiles noted, "the facts are the facts" - and they are unlikely to be erased or ignored by a change in presidential administration.
Potential Impacts of Trump's Policies
While Trump's environmental deregulation agenda may not directly impact the ongoing climate lawsuits, his policies could still have indirect effects. For example, by boosting fossil fuel production and weakening emissions standards, his actions could exacerbate the climate crisis and increase the damages that state and local governments are seeking to recover.
Additionally, a Trump presidency could embolden the fossil fuel industry to take a more aggressive legal stance, potentially leading to more protracted and costly battles. However, experts say that the strength of the evidence against the industry, as well as the growing public awareness and concern about climate change, will continue to work in favor of the plaintiffs.
The Role of Public Opinion and Activism
Ultimately, the success of the climate accountability lawsuits will depend not only on the legal merits of the cases, but also on the broader political and social context. As public concern about the climate crisis continues to grow, and as grassroots activism puts increasing pressure on policymakers and corporate leaders, the fossil fuel industry may find it increasingly difficult to defend its actions in court.
Conclusion
While Donald Trump's environmental agenda poses a significant threat to progress on climate change, experts say that the climate accountability lawsuits targeting the fossil fuel industry have a clear path forward regardless of who occupies the White House. The strength of the evidence against the industry, the separation of powers, and the growing public awareness of the climate crisis all work in favor of the plaintiffs. As the legal battles continue to unfold, the outcome could have far-reaching implications for the future of the fossil fuel industry and the fight against climate change.